Australian Horticulture – Opportunities Ahead

20 November 2025

Looking ahead, the total value of Australian horticulture production is expected to reach a record high of A$19.2 billion in 2025–26 with exports estimated to increase by 8% to A$4.7 billion. Horticulture export prices are expected to rise in 2025–26, reflecting robust global demand. Along with specific sector observations from Warakirri’s diversified agriculture investment team, this update provides key insights into the horticulture sector extracted from the recently published Agricultural Commodities Report by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), the Bendigo Bank Agribusiness Australian Agriculture Export Report and ANZ Bank’s Agri InFocus Commodity Insights Update.

Higher production volumes and export prices drive horticulture values

According to the September quarter 2025 Agricultural Commodities Report published by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), the value of Australian horticulture production is forecast to reach a record A$19.2 billion in 2025–26, up by 4%, from the previous record of A$18.4 billion in 2024–25.

The increase in production value is forecast to be driven by rising production volumes and higher export prices for export-focused commodities. Fruit and nut yields are expected to improve due to an improved rainfall outlook across much of Australia. In particular, yields for tree nut varieties are expected to improve following a challenging season in 2024–25. In addition, previous years’ fruit and nut plantings are continuing to enter commercial production, increasing the production capacity.

Rising export values driven by strong global demand

Horticulture export values are forecast to rise, up by 8% to A$4.7 billion in 2025–26, driven by higher production volumes and export prices. Horticulture export volumes are expected to increase by 6%, in line with increased production capacity and favourable growing conditions.

Horticulture export prices are forecast to continue rising with strong global demand from emerging countries in Southeast Asia and high-value markets in China, Japan and South Korea.

Horticulture export prices, particularly for export-focused horticulture industries such as almonds, macadamias, table grapes and citrus, are forecast to increase in 2025–26 as world demand rises at a faster rate than world supply (see Chart 1).

Chart 1: Australian horticulture production value by sector 1979/80 – 2025/26f

Source: ABARES; ANZ

World demand to increase

World demand for horticulture commodities is forecast to increase in 2025–26. Rising incomes and population growth in emerging markets like India and Southeast Asia will continue to drive demand, supporting global fruit and nut prices.

World fruit demand, particularly for table grapes and citrus fruits, is expected to increase in 2025–26. Strong demand from Asia driven by population growth and rising incomes, especially from middle class households, are expected to support prices. High-value markets such as China, Hong Kong, Korea and Japan are anticipated to maintain strong demand for premium-quality produce, despite slower global economic growth weighing on consumer confidence and discretionary spending.

Average table grape consumption grew by 19% annually in the last decade and is forecast to continue rising into 2025–26 – mainly driven by strong demand from India and ASEAN countries.

Citrus fruit consumption (including oranges and mandarins) is also forecast to rise following a decline observed in 2024–25. Lower consumption in 2024–25, particularly in China, Japan and Korea, was driven by lower global production in key growing regions.

In 2024–25, China remained Australia’s largest fruit export destination. Despite slowing Chinese GDP growth and subdued household consumption, the value of fruit exports to China is forecast to grow further in 2025–26, supporting global fruit prices. This continued growth reflects China’s demand for Australia’s fresh and premium-quality produce.

Similarly, demand from emerging countries in Southeast Asia (including Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam) and high-value markets (such as Japan, Korea and Hong Kong) are expected to continue rising in 2025–26, despite slowing global economic growth.

In the last decade, exports to these markets grew by an average of 6% and 5% respectively. Furthermore, population growth, rising incomes and urbanisation in these markets will continue to support prices.

Sector composition – key contributors and trends

Looking at the major categories of fruit and vegetables, a number have unique growth drivers:

Almonds: Early 2025–26 season sales are up 3% overall, led by a 9% rise in domestic demand. Australian growers are benefiting from strong export premiums, particularly into China, where US tariffs have impacted Californian supply. Prices for non-pareil almonds have reached decade highs, with further increases expected. Turkey’s demand surged 178%, while India, a major export market, saw inshell sales rise 14%. Despite a smaller harvest due to mild spring conditions, growers are optimistic as global supply tightens, and the Australian dollar remains favourable.
Berries: Blueberry prices have surged to nearly $10 per 125g punnet ($80 per kilogram) due to seasonal shortages from damaging rain in key growing regions across northern NSW. Total production is forecast to be below last year’s crop which reached 27,540 tonnes, valued at over $500 million. Strawberry production, led by Queensland in winter, has also been impacted by wet weather, though innovations like hydroponic systems and new varieties should stabilise future supply.
Apples: Production in 2023–24 was around 310,000 tonnes, with a modest rise expected in 2024–25. This stability underlines apples’ role as a consistent performer in both retail and school nutrition programs.
Oranges: Volumes remain just under 480,000 tonnes, with exports continuing to be strong into Japan, China and the US. Their dependable production underpins Australia’s counter seasonal advantage.
Grapes (wine and table): Wine grape output remains around 540,000–560,000 tonnes, with table and dried grapes contributing significantly to exports. Table grapes are one of the horticulture sector’s top export earners.

While growth in these products is steady rather than spectacular, their scale and consistency make them essential to keeping fresh produce available, affordable and dependable for both consumers and supply chains.

For producers, steady demand in fresh and foodservice markets gives confidence for long-term planting decisions. For exporters, crops like grapes and citrus are well-positioned to grow further with continued investment in logistics and market access. For retailers, stable production helps manage price fluctuations and sustain year-round supply.

While horticultural production growth reflects strong global and domestic demand, the larger message is structural: crops with established logistics, retail visibility and export programs are proving more resilient than niche or speculative plantings.

Export performance – strong but competitive

Australian horticulture exports are forecast to continue to grow, driven by strong demand for citrus, grapes and cherries. Major markets include Japan, China, Vietnam, India and the UAE, with Southeast Asia continuing to offer reliable growth, supported by demand for high-quality, counter-seasonal fruit.

However, exporters still face several challenges. Market access negotiations remain slow, particularly for vegetables and some nut varieties. Freight costs continue to weigh on competitiveness, especially for perishable products that rely on airfreight. In addition, evolving biosecurity and labelling requirements are adding to compliance complexity.

Despite these hurdles, Australian produce maintains a strong position in global markets, thanks to its premium reputation, food safety standards and proximity to Asia.

Major export markets

China remained Australia’s largest export market for horticultural produce for the tenth consecutive year with the $1.2 billion of export value accounting for 34.5 per cent of all exports in 2024/25. While the improving trade relationship continues to deliver strong value, the single market concentration remains a watchpoint amidst a period of upheaval in global trade relationships.

Export growth to China at a sector level was driven by almonds (+339 million), citrus (+38.5 million), table grapes (+32.3 million) and macadamias (+$31 million). The trade dispute between China and the US shifted demand towards Australian almond exports, driving record volumes and value.

Meanwhile, the high quality and strong volumes of export focused fruit varieties including table grapes and citrus also proved supportive. The table grape sector benefited from Chile allocating a larger share of their table grapes to the US market enabling Australian product to capture a greater portion of the Chinese market across 2024/25.

However, as disruptions caused by US trade policy reverberates across the sector, we may start to see these key competitors shift away from the US and towards Asian markets, including China.

India surged from Australia’s sixth largest horticultural export market to the second largest market in 2024/25 almost exclusively on the back of rising demand for inshell almonds.

Chart 2: Value of top five Australian horticulture export markets

Source: Bendigo Bank Agribusiness, GTA

Agriculture’s role in a well-diversified portfolio

In addition to the solid long-term or “secular” demand outlook for agriculture, there are other compelling reasons for investors to consider agricultural exposure as part of a well-diversified investment portfolio.

Irrespective of short-term commodity price movements, investing in Australian agriculture offers investors:

Competitive risk-adjusted returns
A lower level of volatility
Returns uncorrelated to other traditional asset classes; and
Defensive characteristics in certain market cycles.

Agriculture, managed well, has a track record of producing competitive risk adjusted returns with relatively low levels of volatility. Agriculture has also delivered relatively low correlation to a range of other asset classes and some exposure to the sector can offer a good source of portfolio diversification for investors.

For the purposes of this paper, in the table below we use the example of the returns across Warakirri’s agricultural investment portfolios as a proxy for the asset class.

Table 1: Asset Class Return Correlations – 10 years to 30 June 2025

Source: Warakirri Asset Management, Bloomberg

Summary

The value of horticulture production is expected to reach a record high in 2025–26 with the value of horticulture exports forecast to also increase.

Horticulture export prices are also expected to rise, reflecting robust global demand, with the supply of fruits and nuts increasing as growing conditions improve in major producing countries including Australia.

With the first interest rate cut in four years occurring earlier this year, there is a feeling rental yields are now at, or around, their peak and we don’t believe it’s likely that cap rates present much more downside risk for valuations over the coming 6 months.

At this point it’s difficult to forecast a cap rate tightening cycle in Australia, particularly across the broad range of different agricultural sectors, and there could still be a lag in some areas of the market. However, as one would expect in commercial and industrial property, if interest rates continue to trend lower, and the risk-free rate eases as anticipated, the value of leased agricultural assets should generally benefit. Consistent with trends in industrial and logistics real estate, well-leased agricultural property continues to be a sought-after investment option for those seeking alternative asset or natural capital exposure.

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This information has been prepared by Warakirri Asset Management Ltd (ABN 33 057 529 370) (AFSL 246782) (Warakirri) to provide general information only and does not constitute financial advice as it does not take into account an individual’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs, and is not an offer or solicitation to enter into an agreement. The information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice. The information is believed to be accurate as at the date published but no warranty is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness. The economic and market forecasts presented herein are for informational purposes as at the date published. There can be no assurance that the forecasts will be achieved. Although certain information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy, completeness or fairness. Warakirri have relied upon and assumed without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of the sources.